moranelkarifnews : What We Learned in Week 16 of the N.F.L. Season

Eight teams are in the playoffs. Thirteen are out. Eleven are clinging to hope, with some having firmer grips than others. 

Eight teams are in. Thirteen are out. Eleven are clinging to hope — some with firmer grips than others.

With two weeks to go, the NFL’s 14-team playoff picture is emerging. The No. 1 seed has yet to be decided in either conference, but the front-runners have put themselves in prime positions.

In the AFC, it’s looking like the playoffs will run through Kansas City. One win from the Chiefs in their final two and they’ll clinch the conference’s top seed.

The NFC, meanwhile, remains up for grabs. A week after the Lions saw their 11-game win streak end, the Eagles’ 10-game streak was snapped. And thanks to Philadelphia’s loss, it looks like the conference’s top seed will come down to two NFC North teams, Detroit (13-2) and Minnesota (13-2). If both win next week — the Lions are at the 49ers, and the Vikings host the Packers — then their Week 18 meeting in Detroit would decide it.

Talk about a tasty regular-season finale.

In Washington, fans at Northwest Stadium witnessed another wild finish. Just 1:58 away from a division title, Philly watched Jayden Daniels drive the Commanders 57 yards in nine plays and connect with Jamison Crowder for the game-winning touchdown with six seconds left. Washington’s 22 fourth-quarter points were just enough to steal the 36-33 victory.

It was a signature performance from Daniels, who remains one of the leading candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He finished with five touchdowns and 339 all-purpose yards against one of the best defenses in football. And the Commanders became just the second team all season to win a game despite five turnovers (the Lions did so in Week 10 against the Texans).

The Eagles (12-3), who lost quarterback Jalen Hurts early in the game due to a concussion, can wrap up an NFC East title with a win next week over the Cowboys. But Sunday’s loss likely cost them their shot at the NFC’s top seed.

Meanwhile, the Rams inched closer to an NFC West crown after beating the Jets 19-9. What a job from Sean McVay and his staff — this team was 1-4 and battered by injuries five weeks into the season. The Rams have won eight of their last 10 and are two wins away from McVay’s fourth division title, which would send L.A. to the playoffs for the sixth time in his eight-year tenure.

In Atlanta, Michael Penix Jr. impressed in his first NFL start, leading the Falcons to a much-needed 34-7 victory over the lowly Giants. Atlanta is now 8-7, and thanks to Tampa Bay’s loss in Dallas Sunday night, back in front in the NFC South. Last week’s benching of Kirk Cousins was a gutsy move, but Raheem Morris might have saved his team’s season.

In Charlotte, the Panthers ended the Cardinals’ playoff hopes with a 36-30 overtime win. Bryce Young’s benching way back after Week 2 feels like a lifetime ago — since his return to the starting lineup, the 2023 No. 1 pick has piled up three wins, which is more than he did all of last season. Arizona has now missed the playoffs three straight seasons and eight of the last nine years.

In Cincinnati, the Bengals dominated the Browns 24-6 to stay alive in the AFC wild-card race. One of the teams they’re tied with at 7-8, the Colts, bounced back from last week’s embarrassing loss in Denver to beat the Titans 38-30. Jonathan Taylor dominated for Indianapolis, rushing for 218 yards and three scores.

Thanks to to another terrific day from Sam Darnold (246 passing yards, three touchdowns) and Justin Jefferson (144 receiving yards and two scores) the Vikings held off the Seahawks in Seattle 27-24. Detroit beat Chicago 34-17 thanks to some orchestrated stumbling from Jared Goff in one of the more creative play designs you’ll see. The Lions’ 13th win also set a franchise record.

The Bills handed the Patriots their 12th loss of the season, 24-21, and the Dolphins kept their thin playoff hopes alive with a 29-17 win over the 49ers, who were eliminated from contention earlier in the day. Same goes for the Cowboys, who will officially watch the postseason from home for the first time in four years.

Here’s what we learned across Week 16 in the NFL:

AFC likely runs through Arrowhead

The AFC playoff picture isn’t quite set, but the top seven teams like where they’re at.

Those already clinched: the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Ravens and Texans. Meanwhile, the Chargers and Broncos are in excellent positions to lock up wild-card berths.

For Kansas City to clinch the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs have to win just one of their final two games: at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day, or at Denver in Week 18.

The Bills’ only path to the top spot would require two straight Kansas City losses, something that hasn’t happened since last December. At 12-3, Buffalo looks like the No. 2 seed.

The Steelers and Ravens — both 10-5 — are in a dogfight for the AFC North crown, the winner of which likely ends up as the No. 3 seed. Since the two split their regular-season series, Pittsburgh has the edge due to a slightly better conference record. But the Steelers have the tougher two-game finish: They host the Chiefs, then face a surging Bengals team clinging to hope.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are at the Texans on Christmas Day, then host the Browns in Week 18.

As for the remaining wild-card spots, one more win from the Broncos locks up the field: The Chargers would be the No. 6 seed and Denver would be No. 7 (the AFC North runner-up would likely end up as the 5 seed). The Broncos are in Cincinnati next weekend, then finish with the Chiefs, who could very well have the top seed wrapped up and may consider resting some starters ahead of another playoff run.

A victory in either of their two final games would give the Broncos the franchise’s first playoff berth since the 2015 season, when the team went on to win Super Bowl 50.

The three teams hoping for a miracle? The Colts, Dolphins and Bengals, each 7-8 and in need of a lot of help to make it into the field.

14 wins, opening on the road?

Picture this: A Week 18 game in which the Lions-Vikings winner not only earns the NFC North title but also the conference’s top seed and playoff bye. And the loser — a 14-win team — would fall to the 5 seed and open the postseason as visitors.

It’s looking all the more likely after the Eagles’ loss on Sunday. But remember, the Vikings beating the Packers next week is no sure thing. If Minnesota were to lose, Detroit would clinch the top seed with a win over San Francisco.

That leaves Philadelphia (12-3) in the No. 2 spot, likely hosting seventh-seeded Washington on wild-card weekend.

The Rams are the surprise of the conference; their late-season surge has them in position to claim another NFC West title and wrap up the No. 3 seed. Win their final two — home games against the Cardinals and Seahawks — and Los Angeles will clinch it.

The Seahawks are still alive in the NFC West race, but they’ll need some help to sneak past the Rams. And even if L.A. loses its Week 18 game against Seattle and both teams finish with identical records, the Rams would all but assuredly win the tiebreaker due to strength of victory. (The Rams also won the season’s earlier meeting.)

The NFC South champ — either the Bucs or Falcons — will likely finish with the No. 4 seed. Green Bay (10-4), meanwhile, can clinch a playoff berth with a win Monday night against New Orleans.

While still alive in the NFC East by virtue of Sunday’s win over the Eagles, the Commanders, at the very least, have a stranglehold on the NFC’s No. 7 spot and are close to locking up what would be the franchise’s first playoff berth in four years. Washington’s 10 wins this season also are tied for the club’s most since 1991.

Will late-season surge save McCarthy?

As the Cowboys round into shape in late December, you have to wonder: While it’s too late to earn a playoff berth, is it too late for Mike McCarthy to save his job?

Owner Jerry Jones has been adamant that he’s yet to make a decision on McCarthy, whose five-year contract ends after the season. If this year was supposed to be about playoff success, McCarthy hasn’t helped himself on that front — the Cowboys were eliminated from contention Sunday afternoon. But Dallas, besieged by injuries for most of the year and plagued by a spotty defense, seems to have finally found its footing, even with star quarterback Dak Prescott watching from the coaches’ booth. Jones said recently he hasn’t ruled out a contract extension for McCarthy and stressed the season’s final stretch will weigh heavy in his decision.

And Jones, despite public perception, has actually become quite patient with head coaches. Remember, he kept Jason Garrett for nine seasons.

“I don’t think that’s crazy at all,” Jones told a Dallas radio station in late November when asked about a potential McCarthy contract extension. “That’s not crazy. Listen, Mike McCarthy is an outstanding coach. … This is a Super Bowl-winning coach.”

No doubt, this team is playing well and playing hard for McCarthy down the stretch.

Take Sunday night’s wild win over the Bucs. Tampa Bay threatened to erase a nine-point deficit in the final three minutes, but Cowboys cornerback Daron Bland swiped the football out of Rachaad White’s hands after a crazy completion from Baker Mayfield with 1:40 left. That sealed Dallas’ 26-24 victory, the Cowboys’ fourth win in five weeks. McCarthy’s done it with a backup quarterback in Cooper Rush.

Dallas is 7-8 and will finish with a pair of division games against Philadelphia and Washington.

Giants eye No. 1

The Giants might soon be on the clock.

New York’s 34-7 stinker Sunday in Atlanta, coupled with the Raiders’ home win over the Jaguars, means the Giants have sole possession of the league’s worst record. With two more losses, they would secure the franchise’s first No. 1 draft pick since 1965.

The Giants will host a Colts team next week fighting for its playoff life, then will finish the regular season in Philadelphia, where the Eagles will most likely be jockeying for postseason position. At 2-13, the Giants are a game clear of the Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Browns and Patriots, all of which have won three games.

It’s been an abysmal season for New York: Sunday’s loss was the team’s 10th in a row, a franchise record. A Week 18 loss in Philly would leave the Giants winless in their division for an entire season — something that’s never happened in the team’s 99 years of existence. And not since 1965 have the Giants finished with the league’s worst record.

The consolation prize looks to be one of the two top quarterbacks in the draft: Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Miami’s Cam Ward.

(Photo of Justin Jefferson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)