The Western Conference’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will face the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets (50-32) in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The two franchises have not met in the playoffs since the opening round in 2011, when Kevin Durant’s Thunder made quick work of the Nuggets.
What we know about Oklahoma City
The Thunder were unbelievable all season, submitting the second-best net rating (12.8) in NBA history and becoming the seventh team ever to win 68 games during the regular season. Four of the six other teams to do it — won the championship in the same season. The other two won a title within a year. It makes sense, then, that Oklahoma City is the betting favorite to win this year’s crown, per BetMGM.
They are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is also the favorite to win this year’s NBA MVP award. He finished second to Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić last season. Gilgeous-Alexander is nothing like Jokić. He is a slender 6-foot-6 point guard who knives his way into any crevice in an opposing defense. He can score from anywhere, including the free-throw line, where he gets to more often than anybody. Gilgeous-Alexander’s statistics — a league-leading 32.7 points (on 52/38/90 shooting splits), 6.4 assists and five rebounds per game — made his the most productive season of any guard since Michael Jordan.
SGA is partnered with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, a pair of fellow rising stars. Both are two-way menaces in their own way. Williams is a wing who creates for himself, also scoring from every level, and defends all five positions. Holmgren, meanwhile, is a 7-1, 215-pound rim-runner and -protector who can space the floor to 3-point range. Together they might be the most talented young trio in the league.
They might be the deepest team in the NBA, too. Isaiah Hartenstein unlocks a devastating double-big lineup. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are defensive bulldogs on the perimeter. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe space the floor. There are unlimited lineup combinations for head coach Mark Daigneault.
Daigneault went 13 deep in their first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies, though some of that was because they had plenty of garbage time. The Thunder walloped the Grizzlies, outscoring them by 78 points over a four-game sweep. SGA, Williams and Holmgren were sensational in the series, as was just about everyone in the rotation. It was the perfect encapsulation of this team that plays so well together.
What we know about Denver
The NBA’s 2023 champions were solid, logging 50 wins for a third straight season. The outstanding performance of Jokić — a three-time MVP who is widely considered the best player in the world — masked what were some concerning trends, especially on defense, where the Nuggets ranked 21st.
Jokić can make up for a lot. He averaged 29.6 points (on 58/42/80 shooting splits), 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.8 steals per game during the regular season, ranking top three in the NBA in each category. He sees the game better than anyone, manipulating defenses with his brute force in the paint, his finesse on a funny-looking but effective outside shot or his ability to find any open man on any spot on the floor.
Complementing him are Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun — four other talented members of a starting five that outscored opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions.
Murray is a dynamic point guard whose health always remains a concern. He and Jokić form one of the most dangerous two-man combinations in the game. Gordon is an extraordinary powerful and athletic forward who has improved his shot from the perimeter. And Porter is a 6-10 marksman whose non-shooting shoulder is another health concern. Together they are the remnants of a championship core.
Depth is an issue. One-time MVP Russell Westbrook is their sixth man. His effort is as consistent as his performance is inconsistent. Beyond him are more question marks. Peyton Watson is the only one of Denver’s young pieces who could be trusted for more than six minutes per game in the opening round.
And that first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers was no joke. The Clippers were far deeper and probably more talented, even if Jokić was the best player in the seven-game set. The Nuggets needed it all from Jokić, plus one 43-point game from Murray and a collective effort at home in Game 7 to advance.
That effort came on behalf of interim head coach David Adelman. The Nuggets fired longtime head coach Michael Malone with three games remaining in the regular season. Malone did not trust Denver’s youth, relying heavily on his six-man rotation, and his defense was not performing to its standard. It was better under Adelman against the Clippers, though the underlying issues remain a concern against the Thunder.
Head-to-head
The Thunder and Nuggets tied their regular-season series, 2-2.
They split a pair in the first 10 games of the season and did the same on back-to-back nights in March. Both teams were relatively healthy for all four meetings, though Denver was missing both Murray and Gordon when the Nuggets defeated Oklahoma City on Nov. 6, 124-122, thanks to Westbrook’s 29 points.
The March meetings were something of an MVP Bowl. The league’s two leading candidates were spectacular against each other. Gilgeous-Alexander totaled 40 points, eight rebounds and five assists in a 127-103 victory on one night, and Jokić dropped a 35-18-8 in a 140-127 win the next night. The MVP conversation seesawed along with them, and neither candidate seized bragging rights over the other.
Denver’s starting lineup — Jokić, Murray, Gordon, Porter and Braun — outscored the Thunder by 15.2 points per 100 possessions over 31 minutes. That is encouraging. The bench, however, was not. This will be worth monitoring all series: Can the Nuggets survive any of their minutes without Jokić on the court?
Conversely, OKC’s double-big lineup, featuring Holmgren and Hartenstein alongside SGA, Williams and Dort, outscored Denver by 34.8 points per 100 possessions in 24 minutes. Expect to see a lot of that, as the smaller Thunder try to limit Jokić’s impact. Neither Holmgren nor Hartenstein can guard him alone.
Matchup to watch
Nikola Jokić vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The two will not defend each other, but come on: These are the NBA’s top two MVP candidates, and they will face each other in the playoffs. This has not happened since James Harden and Russell Westbrook met as the two leading MVP candidates in the first round of the 2017 playoffs. (Harden won that set, 4-1.)
The Nuggets were -6 over Jokić’s 156 minutes against the Thunder this season. They were -18 in his 36 minutes on the bench. On the other hand, Oklahoma City was +4 in Gilgeous-Alexander’s 147 minutes against Denver this season and +20 in his 45 minutes off the floor. That tells us it should be close when these two tangle on the court together, which should be for 40+ minutes a night. That is a lot of fun.
It will be a good test of each candidate’s value. Neither team really has someone to guard the other’s best player. Jokić will power his way to the rim. SGA will carve his way there. Both will produce — a lot.
If Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander are as incredible as we expect them to be, the actual difference in this series could come down to their respective sidekicks, Murray and Williams. Murray has been a playoff god in years past, though not as much as the Nuggets would like of late. Williams is 24 years old and has only been here in a second-round series once before. His youth will be tested as much as Murray’s inconsistency.
Crunch-time lineups
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren and Dort are mainstays of Oklahoma City’s closing lineup. That quartet finished the regular season +13.5 points per 100 non-garbage possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
Daigneault went with Caruso as a fifth option — and a third guard — against the Grizzlies in the opening round, at least in the few clutch minutes of the series. Going smaller is not always a good idea against Jokić and Gordon, both of whom can punish on the interior. Expect some Hartenstein in place of Caruso, only if Denver’s size becomes a problem. Hartenstein and Holmgren also outscored opponents by 13.5 meaningful possessions during the regular season. Essentially, Daigneault has no shortage of weapons.
Denver Nuggets
Jokić, Murray, Gordon and Braun will be on the floor when games are tight in the fourth quarter, unless something is wrong. That much we know. They were one heck of a foursome during the regular season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per 100 meaningful possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Against the Clippers, Adelman more often trusted Westbrook over Porter for the fifth spot, which surely had more to do with Porter’s shoulder injury than Westbrook’s steadier hand. Porter’s minutes with the four other starters in crunch time were far more effective against the Thunder during the regular season.
Prediction: Thunder in six
Jokić can only carry so heavy a burden. Gilgeous-Alexander’s production will mitigate much of Jokić’s dominance, and the Thunder’s depth will carry the day, tiring out the Nuggets over the course of a best-of-seven set. But not before the one-time champs steal a couple of wins against an all-time great roster.
Series betting odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -800
Denver Nuggets: +550
Series schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: Monday @ Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Game 2: Wed., May 7 @ Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Game 3: Fri., May 9 @ Denver (10 p.m., ESPN)
Game 4: Sun., May 11 @ Denver (3:30 p.m., ABC)
*Game 5: Tue., May 13 @ Oklahoma City (TBD, TNT)
*Game 6: Thu., May 15 @ Denver (TBD, ESPN)
* Game 7: Sun., May 18 @ Oklahoma City (TBD)
*if necessary
The Western Conference’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will face the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets (50-32) in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The two franchises have not met in the playoffs since the opening round in 2011, when Kevin Durant’s Thunder made quick work of the Nuggets.
The Thunder were unbelievable all season, submitting the second-best net rating (12.8) in NBA history and becoming the seventh team ever to win 68 games during the regular season. Four of the six other teams to do it — won the championship in the same season. The other two won a title within a year. It makes sense, then, that Oklahoma City is the betting favorite to win this year’s crown, per BetMGM.
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They are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is also the favorite to win this year’s NBA MVP award. He finished second to Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić last season. Gilgeous-Alexander is nothing like Jokić. He is a slender 6-foot-6 point guard who knives his way into any crevice in an opposing defense. He can score from anywhere, including the free-throw line, where he gets to more often than anybody. Gilgeous-Alexander’s statistics — a league-leading 32.7 points (on 52/38/90 shooting splits), 6.4 assists and five rebounds per game — made his the most productive season of any guard since Michael Jordan.
SGA is partnered with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, a pair of fellow rising stars. Both are two-way menaces in their own way. Williams is a wing who creates for himself, also scoring from every level, and defends all five positions. Holmgren, meanwhile, is a 7-1, 215-pound rim-runner and -protector who can space the floor to 3-point range. Together they might be the most talented young trio in the league.
They might be the deepest team in the NBA, too. Isaiah Hartenstein unlocks a devastating double-big lineup. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are defensive bulldogs on the perimeter. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe space the floor. There are unlimited lineup combinations for head coach Mark Daigneault.
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Daigneault went 13 deep in their first-round series against the Memphis Grizzlies, though some of that was because they had plenty of garbage time. The Thunder walloped the Grizzlies, outscoring them by 78 points over a four-game sweep. SGA, Williams and Holmgren were sensational in the series, as was just about everyone in the rotation. It was the perfect encapsulation of this team that plays so well together.
The NBA’s 2023 champions were solid, logging 50 wins for a third straight season. The outstanding performance of Jokić — a three-time MVP who is widely considered the best player in the world — masked what were some concerning trends, especially on defense, where the Nuggets ranked 21st.
Jokić can make up for a lot. He averaged 29.6 points (on 58/42/80 shooting splits), 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.8 steals per game during the regular season, ranking top three in the NBA in each category. He sees the game better than anyone, manipulating defenses with his brute force in the paint, his finesse on a funny-looking but effective outside shot or his ability to find any open man on any spot on the floor.
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Complementing him are Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun — four other talented members of a starting five that outscored opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions.
Murray is a dynamic point guard whose health always remains a concern. He and Jokić form one of the most dangerous two-man combinations in the game. Gordon is an extraordinary powerful and athletic forward who has improved his shot from the perimeter. And Porter is a 6-10 marksman whose non-shooting shoulder is another health concern. Together they are the remnants of a championship core.
Depth is an issue. One-time MVP Russell Westbrook is their sixth man. His effort is as consistent as his performance is inconsistent. Beyond him are more question marks. Peyton Watson is the only one of Denver’s young pieces who could be trusted for more than six minutes per game in the opening round.
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And that first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers was no joke. The Clippers were far deeper and probably more talented, even if Jokić was the best player in the seven-game set. The Nuggets needed it all from Jokić, plus one 43-point game from Murray and a collective effort at home in Game 7 to advance.
That effort came on behalf of interim head coach David Adelman. The Nuggets fired longtime head coach Michael Malone with three games remaining in the regular season. Malone did not trust Denver’s youth, relying heavily on his six-man rotation, and his defense was not performing to its standard. It was better under Adelman against the Clippers, though the underlying issues remain a concern against the Thunder.
The Thunder and Nuggets tied their regular-season series, 2-2.
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They split a pair in the first 10 games of the season and did the same on back-to-back nights in March. Both teams were relatively healthy for all four meetings, though Denver was missing both Murray and Gordon when the Nuggets defeated Oklahoma City on Nov. 6, 124-122, thanks to Westbrook’s 29 points.
The March meetings were something of an MVP Bowl. The league’s two leading candidates were spectacular against each other. Gilgeous-Alexander totaled 40 points, eight rebounds and five assists in a 127-103 victory on one night, and Jokić dropped a 35-18-8 in a 140-127 win the next night. The MVP conversation seesawed along with them, and neither candidate seized bragging rights over the other.
Denver’s starting lineup — Jokić, Murray, Gordon, Porter and Braun — outscored the Thunder by 15.2 points per 100 possessions over 31 minutes. That is encouraging. The bench, however, was not. This will be worth monitoring all series: Can the Nuggets survive any of their minutes without Jokić on the court?
Conversely, OKC’s double-big lineup, featuring Holmgren and Hartenstein alongside SGA, Williams and Dort, outscored Denver by 34.8 points per 100 possessions in 24 minutes. Expect to see a lot of that, as the smaller Thunder try to limit Jokić’s impact. Neither Holmgren nor Hartenstein can guard him alone.
The two will not defend each other, but come on: These are the NBA’s top two MVP candidates, and they will face each other in the playoffs. This has not happened since James Harden and Russell Westbrook met as the two leading MVP candidates in the first round of the 2017 playoffs. (Harden won that set, 4-1.)
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The Nuggets were -6 over Jokić’s 156 minutes against the Thunder this season. They were -18 in his 36 minutes on the bench. On the other hand, Oklahoma City was +4 in Gilgeous-Alexander’s 147 minutes against Denver this season and +20 in his 45 minutes off the floor. That tells us it should be close when these two tangle on the court together, which should be for 40+ minutes a night. That is a lot of fun.
It will be a good test of each candidate’s value. Neither team really has someone to guard the other’s best player. Jokić will power his way to the rim. SGA will carve his way there. Both will produce — a lot.
If Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander are as incredible as we expect them to be, the actual difference in this series could come down to their respective sidekicks, Murray and Williams. Murray has been a playoff god in years past, though not as much as the Nuggets would like of late. Williams is 24 years old and has only been here in a second-round series once before. His youth will be tested as much as Murray’s inconsistency.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren and Dort are mainstays of Oklahoma City’s closing lineup. That quartet finished the regular season +13.5 points per 100 non-garbage possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
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Daigneault went with Caruso as a fifth option — and a third guard — against the Grizzlies in the opening round, at least in the few clutch minutes of the series. Going smaller is not always a good idea against Jokić and Gordon, both of whom can punish on the interior. Expect some Hartenstein in place of Caruso, only if Denver’s size becomes a problem. Hartenstein and Holmgren also outscored opponents by 13.5 meaningful possessions during the regular season. Essentially, Daigneault has no shortage of weapons.
Jokić, Murray, Gordon and Braun will be on the floor when games are tight in the fourth quarter, unless something is wrong. That much we know. They were one heck of a foursome during the regular season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per 100 meaningful possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
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Against the Clippers, Adelman more often trusted Westbrook over Porter for the fifth spot, which surely had more to do with Porter’s shoulder injury than Westbrook’s steadier hand. Porter’s minutes with the four other starters in crunch time were far more effective against the Thunder during the regular season.
Jokić can only carry so heavy a burden. Gilgeous-Alexander’s production will mitigate much of Jokić’s dominance, and the Thunder’s depth will carry the day, tiring out the Nuggets over the course of a best-of-seven set. But not before the one-time champs steal a couple of wins against an all-time great roster.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: -800
Denver Nuggets: +550
Game 1: Monday @ Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Game 2: Wed., May 7 @ Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m., TNT)
Game 3: Fri., May 9 @ Denver (10 p.m., ESPN)
Game 4: Sun., May 11 @ Denver (3:30 p.m., ABC)
*Game 5: Tue., May 13 @ Oklahoma City (TBD, TNT)
*Game 6: Thu., May 15 @ Denver (TBD, ESPN)
* Game 7: Sun., May 18 @ Oklahoma City (TBD)
*if necessary
