Scouting the Knicks: What the numbers tell us about Boston-New York showdown originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics dominated the New York Knicks during the 2024-25 regular season, piling up three double-digit wins and outscoring their Atlantic Division rivals by 65 points overall.
Will it be more of the same when these two teams meet in the playoffs for the first time since 2013? In the long ramp to Monday’s Game 1, Knicks forward Josh Hart was quick to note that “there are bits and pieces you take from [the regular season] … but the series is 0-0.”
He’s not wrong. But the regular-season data only seems to highlight the advantages that Boston potentially could generate against this Knicks team, so it’s understandable if New York would prefer to ignore those numbers. The Celtics would be wise to take some guidance from the numbers, but not be overconfident from them.
Here are five storylines — beyond the Jaylen vs. Jalen marquee matchup we spotlighted earlier — that could dictate whether this series is as lopsided as the first four meetings this season:
1. The KP Effect
The last time we saw Kristaps Porzingis against the New York Knicks, he was tongue-wagging all over center court at Madison Square Garden after piling up 34 points on 11-of-19 shooting and hitting a bunch of deep 3s from New Rochelle to help Boston escape with an overtime triumph to sweep the regular-season series.
Porzingis, by his own admission, did not play up to his own standards in Round 1 against the Magic. Their size and physicality bothered him.
Porzingis produced a much-needed 20-point, 10-rebound effort when the team was without Jayson Tatum in Game 2 against the Magic. But Porzingis shot just 35.2 percent from the floor overall (19 of 54) and missed 15 of the 17 3-pointers he attempted against Orlando. The Magic were fearless attacking him defensively, too, and Porzingis will need to be better on both ends in Round 2.
But he won’t lack for motivation.
Drafted No. 4 overall by the Knicks a decade ago, Porzingis battled injury woes in New York before being unceremoniously dealt to the Dallas Mavericks in 2019. He’s spoken with great appreciation for all the stops on his NBA journey, but Porzingis almost certainly will get a jolt of extra adrenaline when he hits the floor, espresso in hand, for pregame warmups in front of blue and orange-clad Knicks fans at MSG later this week.
The Knicks dispatched Karl-Anthony Towns as their primary defender against Porzingis in two regular-season matchups, and Porzingis generated 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting while connecting on 4 of 8 attempts beyond the 3-point arc.
Perhaps more intriguing will be how the Celtics deploy Porzingis defensively. Al Horford has been an elite KAT defender, and it’s no surprise the Knicks big man had his best game against Boston without Horford available for the final regular-season meeting.
The Celtics would prefer to match Porzingis on Josh Hart, giving the team the ability to send two bodies at Towns or Brunson when needed. That could give Hart some open perimeter looks at times, but he made just 1 of 9 3-pointers against Boston in the four meetings this season.
Porzingis will need to be ready to joust with Towns, and defending without fouling will be a priority. But Porzingis’ presence on the offensive end could put the Knicks in a lot of binds and he must be ready to punish them the way he did in the final meeting of the regular season.
2. Checking in on Knicks’ moves to stop the Jays…
The Knicks have made two major trades in the past 18 months to add defensive-minded wings who were supposed to slow down Boston’s superstar tandem of Tatum and Brown. Alas, even with both OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, the Knicks haven’t quite been able to corral the Celtics’ offense.
Tatum shredded the Knicks for 33.5 points per game this season while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor and 47.8 percent beyond the 3-point arc. Boston outscored the Knicks by 58 points in Tatum’s 151 minutes of floor time this season.
Brown’s knee hindered him in the fourth meeting, but the Celtics offense still hummed whenever he was on the court.
A look at how the Knicks’ primary options fared defending Tatum and Brown this season:
Anunoby had excellent individual numbers against both the Jays and often forced them to move the ball. The Celtics should hunt more advantageous matchup against the Knicks.
Bridges didn’t bother Tatum in the least, with Boston’s star shooting 68.4 percent from the floor against him, including 57.1 percent on 3s. Bridges didn’t spend much time against Brown and logged the majority on his non-Tatum minutes against Derrick White, who also thrived at a Tatum-like level (62.5 percent shooting overall; 66.7 percent on 3s).
Sending help didn’t make it any easier to corral Tatum, who seemed to light up when he got matched on Towns.
Tatum put up 25 shots on Towns in the 27.7 defensive possessions logged by the NBA tracking, generating a staggering 43 points on 16-of-25 shooting (64 percent) while making 6-of-12 3-pointers.
3. Can Robinson be a game-changer?
After the Celtics dominated the first three matchups against the Knicks, it was often suggested that things might be different if Mitchell Robinson was available. The 7-foot big man played 16 minutes in the final meeting of the regular season and left his mark on the glass with more offensive rebounds (four) than defensive boards (seven) in his floor time.
Rebounding will be a priority for Boston this series. The Magic were able to hang around with an anemic offense because they generated extra possessions on the glass, and the Knicks are too good offensively to allow second chances.
As for Robinson’s potential impact, the Knicks had a minus-2.9 net rating in his 99 minutes during the Round 1 slugfest with the Pistons. They were 9.4 points better defensively with him but the offense ground to a halt (97.1 offensive rating, 12.7 points worse than the team’s series average).
Robinson certainly helps a team that basically only goes eight players deep, but as long as Luke Kornet and Co. are finishing rebounds for Boston’s reserve units, the suggestion that Mitchell’s presence could alter Boston’s regular-season dominance feels a bit overstated.
4. Will Knicks sell out to stop the 3?
While no team in the NBA ran opponents off the 3-point line like the Magic, the Knicks did finish fifth in the NBA in opponent 3-point attempts, allowing just 35.7 per game. The bad news for New York: Opponents shot 36.7 percent on them, the fifth-worst mark in the NBA.
The Celtics were unfazed by New York’s attempts to limit 3s during the regular season, averaging 48.3 3-point attempts per game versus the Knicks.
That number is slightly juiced from opening night, when Boston tied an NBA record with 29 makes on a ridiculous 61 attempts. But the Celtics shot 43.5 percent on their 193 total 3s against New York this season. Boston’s 130.2 offensive rating vs. the Knicks was its highest mark against any East opponent.
Will the floodgates open for the Celtics after the Magic did everything they could to take away the 3 last round? Will the Knicks modify their approach and try to match Orlando’s blueprint? New York doesn’t have the defensive versatility to switch as frequently as Orlando did without Boston taking advantage of matchups.
The Knicks limited the Pistons to 32.4 percent shooting beyond the arc on just 31.3 3-point attempts per game in Round 1. They also gave up the second most free-throw attempts per game (27.8) and Boston needs to continue to be aggressive if teams take away the 3.
5. How much will Celtics lean on double-big lineups?
With Porzingis and Horford sitting out various games during the regular season, the Celtics logged only 11 minutes with that particular double-big grouping. Boston was +14 in their time together while shooting 57.1 percent from the floor and 50 percent beyond the 3-point arc in that span.
Defensively, the double-big lineup has the potential to challenge the Knicks’ offense. Horford has been solid against Towns, limiting him to eight points on 3-of-8 shooting with a block and a turnover in 8:37 of matchup time. Putting Porzingis on Hart gives the Celtics an ability to have multiple big bodies to swarm Towns or Brunson near the basket.
Even if the Celtics elect to go small, the Celtics have routinely dispatched Jrue Holiday to defend Towns. This feels like a big Holiday series if his hamstring is healthy again. The Celtics will ask him to chase the shifty Brunson through endless screens on one possession, then go joust with Towns the next.
The Celtics will have to balance how much they are willing to live with Brunson getting his points. The Knicks were 26-22 when Brunson scored 21+ points this season but 14-3 when he scored 20 or fewer.
There’s some flukiness with blowouts and a 9-3 record when Brunson went for 35+, which suggests there are limitations on just how much you’re willing to concede to reel in Towns and the rest of the supporting cast.
Scouting the Knicks: What the numbers tell us about Boston-New York showdown
The chess match begins Monday night at TD Garden for Game 1.
The Boston Celtics dominated the New York Knicks during the 2024-25 regular season, piling up three double-digit wins and outscoring their Atlantic Division rivals by 65 points overall.
Will it be more of the same when these two teams meet in the playoffs for the first time since 2013? In the long ramp to Monday’s Game 1, Knicks forward Josh Hart was quick to note that “there are bits and pieces you take from [the regular season] … but the series is 0-0.”
He’s not wrong. But the regular-season data only seems to highlight the advantages that Boston potentially could generate against this Knicks team, so it’s understandable if New York would prefer to ignore those numbers. The Celtics would be wise to take some guidance from the numbers, but not be overconfident from them.
SIGN UP HERE Here are five storylines — beyond the Jaylen vs. Jalen marquee matchup we spotlighted earlier — that could dictate whether this series is as lopsided as the first four meetings this season:
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1. The KP Effect
The last time we saw Kristaps Porzingis against the New York Knicks, he was tongue-wagging all over center court at Madison Square Garden after piling up 34 points on 11-of-19 shooting and hitting a bunch of deep 3s from New Rochelle to help Boston escape with an overtime triumph to sweep the regular-season series.
Porzingis, by his own admission, did not play up to his own standards in Round 1 against the Magic. Their size and physicality bothered him.
Porzingis produced a much-needed 20-point, 10-rebound effort when the team was without Jayson Tatum in Game 2 against the Magic. But Porzingis shot just 35.2 percent from the floor overall (19 of 54) and missed 15 of the 17 3-pointers he attempted against Orlando. The Magic were fearless attacking him defensively, too, and Porzingis will need to be better on both ends in Round 2.
But he won’t lack for motivation.
Drafted No. 4 overall by the Knicks a decade ago, Porzingis battled injury woes in New York before being unceremoniously dealt to the Dallas Mavericks in 2019. He’s spoken with great appreciation for all the stops on his NBA journey, but Porzingis almost certainly will get a jolt of extra adrenaline when he hits the floor, espresso in hand, for pregame warmups in front of blue and orange-clad Knicks fans at MSG later this week.
The Knicks dispatched Karl-Anthony Towns as their primary defender against Porzingis in two regular-season matchups, and Porzingis generated 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting while connecting on 4 of 8 attempts beyond the 3-point arc.
Perhaps more intriguing will be how the Celtics deploy Porzingis defensively. Al Horford has been an elite KAT defender, and it’s no surprise the Knicks big man had his best game against Boston without Horford available for the final regular-season meeting.
The Celtics would prefer to match Porzingis on Josh Hart, giving the team the ability to send two bodies at Towns or Brunson when needed. That could give Hart some open perimeter looks at times, but he made just 1 of 9 3-pointers against Boston in the four meetings this season.
Porzingis will need to be ready to joust with Towns, and defending without fouling will be a priority. But Porzingis’ presence on the offensive end could put the Knicks in a lot of binds and he must be ready to punish them the way he did in the final meeting of the regular season.
2. Checking in on Knicks’ moves to stop the Jays…
The Knicks have made two major trades in the past 18 months to add defensive-minded wings who were supposed to slow down Boston’s superstar tandem of Tatum and Brown. Alas, even with both OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, the Knicks haven’t quite been able to corral the Celtics’ offense.
Tatum shredded the Knicks for 33.5 points per game this season while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor and 47.8 percent beyond the 3-point arc. Boston outscored the Knicks by 58 points in Tatum’s 151 minutes of floor time this season.
Brown’s knee hindered him in the fourth meeting, but the Celtics offense still hummed whenever he was on the court.
A look at how the Knicks’ primary options fared defending Tatum and Brown this season:
Anunoby had excellent individual numbers against both the Jays and often forced them to move the ball. The Celtics should hunt more advantageous matchup against the Knicks.
Bridges didn’t bother Tatum in the least, with Boston’s star shooting 68.4 percent from the floor against him, including 57.1 percent on 3s. Bridges didn’t spend much time against Brown and logged the majority on his non-Tatum minutes against Derrick White, who also thrived at a Tatum-like level (62.5 percent shooting overall; 66.7 percent on 3s).
Sending help didn’t make it any easier to corral Tatum, who seemed to light up when he got matched on Towns.
Tatum put up 25 shots on Towns in the 27.7 defensive possessions logged by the NBA tracking, generating a staggering 43 points on 16-of-25 shooting (64 percent) while making 6-of-12 3-pointers.
3. Can Robinson be a game-changer?
After the Celtics dominated the first three matchups against the Knicks, it was often suggested that things might be different if Mitchell Robinson was available. The 7-foot big man played 16 minutes in the final meeting of the regular season and left his mark on the glass with more offensive rebounds (four) than defensive boards (seven) in his floor time.
Rebounding will be a priority for Boston this series. The Magic were able to hang around with an anemic offense because they generated extra possessions on the glass, and the Knicks are too good offensively to allow second chances.
As for Robinson’s potential impact, the Knicks had a minus-2.9 net rating in his 99 minutes during the Round 1 slugfest with the Pistons. They were 9.4 points better defensively with him but the offense ground to a halt (97.1 offensive rating, 12.7 points worse than the team’s series average).
Robinson certainly helps a team that basically only goes eight players deep, but as long as Luke Kornet and Co. are finishing rebounds for Boston’s reserve units, the suggestion that Mitchell’s presence could alter Boston’s regular-season dominance feels a bit overstated.
4. Will Knicks sell out to stop the 3?
While no team in the NBA ran opponents off the 3-point line like the Magic, the Knicks did finish fifth in the NBA in opponent 3-point attempts, allowing just 35.7 per game. The bad news for New York: Opponents shot 36.7 percent on them, the fifth-worst mark in the NBA.
The Celtics were unfazed by New York’s attempts to limit 3s during the regular season, averaging 48.3 3-point attempts per game versus the Knicks.
That number is slightly juiced from opening night, when Boston tied an NBA record with 29 makes on a ridiculous 61 attempts. But the Celtics shot 43.5 percent on their 193 total 3s against New York this season. Boston’s 130.2 offensive rating vs. the Knicks was its highest mark against any East opponent.
Will the floodgates open for the Celtics after the Magic did everything they could to take away the 3 last round? Will the Knicks modify their approach and try to match Orlando’s blueprint? New York doesn’t have the defensive versatility to switch as frequently as Orlando did without Boston taking advantage of matchups.
The Knicks limited the Pistons to 32.4 percent shooting beyond the arc on just 31.3 3-point attempts per game in Round 1. They also gave up the second most free-throw attempts per game (27.8) and Boston needs to continue to be aggressive if teams take away the 3.
5. How much will Celtics lean on double-big lineups?
With Porzingis and Horford sitting out various games during the regular season, the Celtics logged only 11 minutes with that particular double-big grouping. Boston was +14 in their time together while shooting 57.1 percent from the floor and 50 percent beyond the 3-point arc in that span.
Defensively, the double-big lineup has the potential to challenge the Knicks’ offense. Horford has been solid against Towns, limiting him to eight points on 3-of-8 shooting with a block and a turnover in 8:37 of matchup time. Putting Porzingis on Hart gives the Celtics an ability to have multiple big bodies to swarm Towns or Brunson near the basket.
Even if the Celtics elect to go small, the Celtics have routinely dispatched Jrue Holiday to defend Towns. This feels like a big Holiday series if his hamstring is healthy again. The Celtics will ask him to chase the shifty Brunson through endless screens on one possession, then go joust with Towns the next.
The Celtics will have to balance how much they are willing to live with Brunson getting his points. The Knicks were 26-22 when Brunson scored 21+ points this season but 14-3 when he scored 20 or fewer.
There’s some flukiness with blowouts and a 9-3 record when Brunson went for 35+, which suggests there are limitations on just how much you’re willing to concede to reel in Towns and the rest of the supporting cast.
