Dan Titus examines six of fantasy basketball’s most underwhelming draft picks halfway through the season.
Alright, fantasy basketball managers, we’re nearing the halfway point of the NBA season, and it’s time to address the meh-to-mid players dragging us down. We weren’t banking on home runs for many of the players listed below — just a solid floor post-draft that would provide the depth necessary to fill the gaps in the mid-to-late rounds. Whether it’s due to injuries, inconsistent performances or a complete statistical nosedive, some guys just aren’t living up to their ADP (average draft position) and I’m not convinced they can turn it around.
Let’s break it down.
Jalen Duren – C, Detroit Pistons
ADP: 53.6
Current 9-Cat Rank: 131
FPPG: 27.98 (110th overall)
Coming off a strong sophomore campaign and ditching much of the disastrous front office, I expected Duren to level up in Year 3. Unfortunately, many of us didn’t project a timeshare with Isaiah Stewart, which has impacted his minutes and, ultimately, his production. The rebounding numbers (9.4 RPG) show promise, but his scoring regressed to his rookie-year numbers (under 10 PPG).
On the plus side, he is blocking 1.2 shots per game, but if his minutes stick in the 25-minute range versus the high 20s and low 30s, he won’t be able to reach his ADP. If you roster him like I do, you’re just waiting for a sell-high moment despite the Pistons being two games over .500 for the first time in a long time. It means something that Detroit is competing versus tanking.
Jrue Holiday – PG/SG, Boston Celtics
ADP: 79.5
Current 9-Cat Rank: 98
FPPG: 25.94 (127th overall)
Jrue hasn’t been “bad,” but he is underperforming by nearly two rounds relative to his ADP. Of all the Celtics starters to see a gradual decline, Holiday was the leading candidate, given his age and role in the offense. Holiday’s scoring and efficiency have slightly regressed, and while the defensive stats are still solid (which we love him for), they don’t exactly make up for his lower-than-expected scoring output or occasional no-show games.
His usage is consistent with last year’s, but Holiday is a better real-life player than a fantasy asset at this stage in his career.
Jusuf Nurkić – C, Phoenix Suns
ADP: 83.9
Current 9-Cat Rank: 215
FPPG: 24.69 (138th overall)
When Coach Bud was announced as the Suns’ new head coach, I ranked Nurk with the optimistic idea that he could become a discount Brook Lopez. The exact opposite has occurred, with Nurk benched not even halfway through the season for being a cone of defense and not bringing much offensively. He’s shooting 45% from the field, and while the rebounding numbers hold up (9.2 RPG), the advanced numbers are troubling.
Career-low box score plus-minus (BPM) of -3.3
Career-low player efficiency rating (PER) of 12.8
Tied career-low for value over replacement of -0.2
Career-low usage rate of 18.7%
Career-high turnover rate of 22.8%
Add the constant injury concerns, and Nurkić has been flat-out draining for managers who took a chance on him. Move on if you haven’t already. Yes, that’s me talking to the 73% of fantasy managers out there.
Kyle Kuzma – PF, Washington Wizards
ADP: 85.1
Current 9-cat Rank: 345
FPPG: 24.59 (140th overall)
Kuzma has been one of the worst 9-cat draft picks this season. He’s averaging the lowest points, rebounds, assists and FG% in four seasons while sporting the worst true-shooting percentage of his career. Some of his underwhelming play can be attributed to injuries, but he’s nowhere close to the player we’ve seen in recent years. I’m shocked he’s still rostered in 79% of Yahoo leagues.
Are you holding out for a potential trade?
If so, now is the time to send him packing because he played 35 minutes in Monday’s loss to the Timberwolves, scoring 22 points (9-21 FG, 3-8 3PT) with five boards and five assists. It was just the second time in 21 games he’s scored over 20 points this season. It’s a perfect moment to sell high before his next dud. Even if he gets dealt in real life, there’s no guarantee it’ll be to greener pastures.
Bogdan Bogdanović – SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks
ADP: 91.2
Current 9-cat rank: 178
FPPG: 20.18 (201st overall)
It seems we’ve been waiting forever for Bogdanović to stay healthy and give us consistent fantasy numbers. While he’s shown flashes of returning to last season’s form, Dyson Daniels’ breakout and De’Andre Hunter’s emergence as a legit sixth-man-of-the-year candidate have led to Bogie receiving inconsistent minutes (25.6 MPG, the lowest of his career) with underwhelming production (just 11/3/2 on 42% shooting).
He’s still 61% rostered across Yahoo leagues, but I would have dropped him by now. He no longer provides sixth-round value for fantasy managers, with so many other wings on the Hawks outplaying him.
Terry Rozier – PG, Miami Heat
ADP: 107.2
Current 9-Cat Rank: 205
FPPG: 22.52 (165th overall)
The Heat traded for Rozier near the deadline last season and he hasn’t given them or fantasy managers much ROI. Rozier’s ADP was modest, but to be playing at a level almost 100 spots worse than his preseason ADP is far lower than we anticipated. Rozier (12 PPG on 40% FG) has done nothing from an efficiency or counting stats perspective to warrant being 65% rostered.
While he still gets opportunities with Jimmy Butler away from the team, even if that holds, his declining usage (20%) and assist percentage (14%) show that he’s taken a backseat. Can Scary Terry turn it around? Maybe. But if you drafted him hoping for steady production, the frustration is totally valid.
Honorable mention:
Mike Conley Jr. PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
ADP: 134.2
Current 9-Cat Rank: 151
FPPG: 20.89 (181st overall)
Final thoughts
Fantasy basketball is all about patience. Some players are just slow starters, others are battling through injuries or role changes, and a few … well, they might just not be “it” this season. But don’t forget what makes this fun — the unpredictability, the comeback stories and the “I-told-you-so” calls when you hold onto a guy who finally figures it out.
Hang in there, managers. Remember, you’re in control of your team. You can always shake up your roster if patience isn’t your style or hold onto a disappointing pick if you see a path to increased production. Either way, good luck turning things around in the second half!
