Telling Brunson stat hints at blueprint for Celtics beating Knicks originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Jalen Brunson is the head of the snake for the New York Knicks.
A two-time All-Star and the reigning NBA Clutch Player of the Year, Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (26.0 points per game) and assists (7.3 per game) this season while taking more than 20 percent of their shots. He poured in 31.5 points per game in New York’s first-round playoff series against the Detroit Pistons, including the dagger 3-pointer in Game 6 on Thursday that punched the Knicks’ ticket to the second round.
So naturally, the Celtics’ No. 1 priority in their Round 2 playoff matchup with the Knicks should be keeping Brunson in check.
Or so you’d think. But there’s some compelling evidence to the contrary.
Consider this: Brunson played 65 games this season and was held to 20 points or fewer in 17 of them. The Knicks went 14-3 in those games. When Brunson scored 21 or more, New York was a pedestrian 26-22. So, the fewer points Brunson scored, the better the Knicks’ were chances of winning.
Some context is required: A few of those 14 wins were blowouts in which Brunson rested down the stretch. But he played 30-plus minutes in 13 of his 17 games with 20 points or fewer, suggesting that this was a real pattern for the Knicks and their star player.
The Celtics should hardly be surprised, of course; Brunson scored at least 22 points in all four regular-season matchups vs. Boston and lost all four times. His “best” game against the C’s (36 points) came in New York’s most lopsided loss, a 131-104 Celtics rout on Feb. 8.
What Joe Mazzulla and Co. may have known — and what they’ll try to replicate in this series — is that an essential key to beating the Knicks is shutting down their role players.
Of the five Knicks outside Brunson who averaged 25 minutes or more per game this season, nearly all have the expected correlation of more points leading to more wins. For example, New York was 21-8 when OG Anunoby scored 21 points or more, and just 16-17 when he was held to 15 points or fewer.
The Knicks won 85 percent of their games (22-4) when Mikal Bridges contributed 21 or more points, and 73 percent of their games (8-3) when Miles McBride crossed the 15-point threshold.
While the correlation was less strong with Karl-Anthony Towns — 34-17 record when Towns scored 21 or more; 12-9 when he scored 20 or fewer — the Celtics got a first-hand look at how the Knicks big man can impact a game.
Two of Towns’ worst scoring performances of the season came in New York’s two biggest losses to Boston (nine points in the 27-point loss and 12 points in a 132-109 defeat on Opening Night), while Towns’ best effort against the C’s (34 points) came in the one game the Knicks kept close, an overtime loss on April 8.
The Celtics obviously can’t let Brunson run wild in this series; just ask the Pistons. But the bigger concern for Boston when the second-round matchup begins Monday at TD Garden should be preventing scoring outbursts from Brunson’s supporting cast.
Telling Brunson stat hints at blueprint for Celtics beating Knicks
Big games for New York’s star player don’t always equate to wins.
Jalen Brunson is the head of the snake for the New York Knicks.
A two-time All-Star and the reigning NBA Clutch Player of the Year, Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (26.0 points per game) and assists (7.3 per game) this season while taking more than 20 percent of their shots. He poured in 31.5 points per game in New York’s first-round playoff series against the Detroit Pistons, including the dagger 3-pointer in Game 6 on Thursday that punched the Knicks’ ticket to the second round.
SIGN UP HERE So naturally, the Celtics’ No. 1 priority in their Round 2 playoff matchup with the Knicks should be keeping Brunson in check.
Or so you’d think. But there’s some compelling evidence to the contrary.
Consider this: Brunson played 65 games this season and was held to 20 points or fewer in 17 of them. The Knicks went 14-3 in those games. When Brunson scored 21 or more, New York was a pedestrian 26-22. So, the fewer points Brunson scored, the better the Knicks’ were chances of winning.
Some context is required: A few of those 14 wins were blowouts in which Brunson rested down the stretch. But he played 30-plus minutes in 13 of his 17 games with 20 points or fewer, suggesting that this was a real pattern for the Knicks and their star player.
The Celtics should hardly be surprised, of course; Brunson scored at least 22 points in all four regular-season matchups vs. Boston and lost all four times. His “best” game against the C’s (36 points) came in New York’s most lopsided loss, a 131-104 Celtics rout on Feb. 8.
What Joe Mazzulla and Co. may have known — and what they’ll try to replicate in this series — is that an essential key to beating the Knicks is shutting down their role players.
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Of the five Knicks outside Brunson who averaged 25 minutes or more per game this season, nearly all have the expected correlation of more points leading to more wins. For example, New York was 21-8 when OG Anunoby scored 21 points or more, and just 16-17 when he was held to 15 points or fewer.
The Knicks won 85 percent of their games (22-4) when Mikal Bridges contributed 21 or more points, and 73 percent of their games (8-3) when Miles McBride crossed the 15-point threshold.
While the correlation was less strong with Karl-Anthony Towns — 34-17 record when Towns scored 21 or more; 12-9 when he scored 20 or fewer — the Celtics got a first-hand look at how the Knicks big man can impact a game.
Two of Towns’ worst scoring performances of the season came in New York’s two biggest losses to Boston (nine points in the 27-point loss and 12 points in a 132-109 defeat on Opening Night), while Towns’ best effort against the C’s (34 points) came in the one game the Knicks kept close, an overtime loss on April 8.
The Celtics obviously can’t let Brunson run wild in this series; just ask the Pistons. But the bigger concern for Boston when the second-round matchup begins Monday at TD Garden should be preventing scoring outbursts from Brunson’s supporting cast.
