Mike Barner searches the fantasy basketball landscape looking for the most challenging players to rank. Where should you draft Kawhi Leonard or LaMelo Ball?
The heart of fantasy basketball draft season is rapidly approaching. Ranking players is key as it helps make drafts easier to navigate. However, not all players are easy to rank. Let’s discuss five players who are challenging to rank as we head into the 2024-25 season.
Leonard was very productive again last season. He averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.1 3-pointers per game. He was also efficient, shooting 52.5% from the field and 88.5% from the charity stripe. Even his 68 games played were his most since the 2016-17 season.
The downside for Leonard was that he suffered yet another knee injury in the playoffs and ended up having surgery in the offseason. The expectation is that he will be limited at the beginning of training camp, but he has already said that his plan is to be ready for Opening Night.
The Clippers desperately need Leonard to be healthy and productive with Paul George having departed for the 76ers. The Clippers did not bring in a big name to replace George, instead adding role players including Derrick Jones Jr. and Nicolas Batum. If Leonard is healthy, he has top-20 potential. However, he could also end up playing fewer than 55 games for the fourth time over the last five seasons because of injuries.
Leonard is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option.
Ball’s skill set makes him very appealing in fantasy. He can contribute in a bunch of areas and is one of the leading scorers for the Hornets. Last season, he averaged 23.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 3.2 3-pointers per game. The problem was that he played in just 22 games because of ankle injuries.
Ball has played more than 51 games in a season just one time over his first four seasons in the league. The last two seasons, he played a combined 58 games. The upside with him is off the charts. He is only 23 years old and he has a usage rate of 28.8% for his career. His current ADP is 26.5, so if you want to draft him for your squad, you’ll need to do so early. If he can stay healthy, he’ll likely be worth it. If the early part of his career is any indication, though, asking him to stay healthy is a tall order.
Beal saw his scoring production take a significant hit during his first season with the Suns. He averaged 18.2 points per game and finished with a 22.7% usage rate. That was the first time that he averaged fewer than 22.6 points per game since the 2015-16 season. It also ended his streak of five straight seasons with a usage rate of at least 28.4%. To top it all off, he appeared in just 53 games because of injuries. On the plus side, he averaged 4.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists.
The Suns finally added a true point guard this offseason in Tyus Jones. The expectation is that Jones, Beal and Devin Booker will all start together alongside Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkić. With Booker and Durant in the fold, Beal likely would need one of them to get injured to see his usage rate improve. With Jones in the fold, Beal could take a hit in assists. However, Jones has plenty of experience coming off the bench during his career, so if this small lineup doesn’t work early, he could shift to the second unit, adding more ball-handling responsibilities for Beal.
Beal’s skill set gives him top-75 upside, but he could also finish outside the top 100 based on the Suns’ new lineup and his injury concerns.
Poole seemed destined for a breakout season as one of the leading scoring options for the Wizards. No longer in the shadows of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the Warriors, he really only had Kyle Kuzma to compete with for shot attempts. However, Poole only finished with a 26.4% usage rate that was nearly three percentage points lower than his final season with the Warriors. His efficiency also took a hit with him shooting just 41.3% from the field.
The Wizards are short on scoring options again this season behind Poole and Kuzma. With Jones gone, they will be turning to the often-injured Malcolm Brogdon at point guard. He has played in more than 67 games just one time during his career. There is a path for Poole to average at least 20.0 points and 5.0 assists in the same season for the first time in his career. However, there is also the potential that his lack of efficiency continues to drag down his fantasy value.
A rebuild is underway for the Nets. After he averaged 19.6 points per game last season, Mikal Bridges was dealt to the Knicks. Cam Thomas is set to take over as the undisputed top scoring option for the Nets, but someone else is going to have to step up to fill the void created by Bridges’ departure. Nic Claxton is back, but he’s not a scorer. Other underwhelming veterans still left in the fold are Ben Simmons, Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith. Bojan Bogdanović (foot) came over in the Bridges trade, but it’s unclear when he will be ready to play again.
The stars could be aligning for Johnson to have the biggest opportunity of his career. The question is, can he stay healthy long enough to take advantage of it? He has played in a total of just 100 games the last two seasons and he has never played in more than 66 games in a season during his career.
Last season, Johnson averaged a modest 28 minutes per game. Given the options around him, there is the chance that Johnson averages at least 30 minutes per game for the first time in his career. If he does, he could blow by the averages of 13.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 3-pointers per game from last season. However, Johnson will turn 29 years old in March, so if the Nets don’t view him as part of their long-term plans, he could be dealt to another team in which he would take on a lesser role at some point in the season.
Check out RotoWire’s How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
Dive into RotoWire’s Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
Study NBA Depth Charts
See RotoWire’s Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
