Hitting on breakout players is key in fantasy basketball. Dan Titus presents four guards he thinks are on the precipice of doing just that in 2024-23.
Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley tops the list of projected fantasy basketball breakouts this season. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Hey, hoop heads! As we gear up for another electrifying NBA season, it’s time to uncover those hidden gems ready to shine on the hardwood. This week, we’re focusing on four dynamic guards set to make a splash in your fantasy basketball leagues.
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Put these players on your radar as they’re stepping into more prominent roles and possess true breakout characteristics. Let’s break it down.
The fifth-year guard finally has an opportunity to showcase his talent as a full-time starter. Quickley gave us a glimpse of what to expect this upcoming season when he averaged 19 points with five rebounds and seven assists in 38 games for the Raptors last season. He played so well that the Raptors extended Quickley through the 2028-2029 season, entrusting him as their franchise PG.
Per BetMGM, Quickley has the sixth-shortest odds (+2000) to win Most Improved Player, a strong signal that he’s in for a big season. Following the mid-season trade from the Knicks, Quickley’s playing time ballooned from 23 to 33 minutes per game. For those concerned about Scottie Barnes eating into Quickley’s usage, he only saw a 2% decline with Barnes on the floor (24% to 22%). Quickley is a versatile fantasy player who provides value in most categories except blocks and FG%.
His ADP sits in the fifth round, but I’d move aggressively for him in the fourth round because I expect he’ll finish within the top 50 in both points and category leagues this season.
Cam Thomas has been a microwave bucket since entering the league a few years ago. This season, we’ll see him emerge as the top option and franchise player for the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets. Thomas saw a 30% usage rate with Mikal Bridges present (he’s now gone) and was one of nine players under 23 years old to average at least 20 ppg last season.
While Thomas is typecast as a chucker, this is the year we’ll see some growth in his playmaking abilities. In 11 games in March last year, Thomas averaged 4.3 assists per game. Thomas gives the feel of Jordan Poole 2.0 from last year, but at least Thomas has built-in chemistry and familiarity with the team, as he’s been with Brooklyn since being drafted in 2021.
The Nets have a new coach, but given the roster and tanking aspirations, this offense will flow through Thomas as both a scorer and facilitator. He could finish in the top 10 in scoring this season, and with a boost in assists, 3s and potentially steals, his seventh-round ADP looks fair considering the work he’s about to put in as the Nets’ focal point.
The Orlando Magic let Markelle Fultz walk in free agency, and while a few guards were rumored to be coming in, the Magic opted to hand the keys over to fourth-year guard Jalen Suggs. And why not? Suggs significantly improved in his third NBA season. He earned second-team All-Defense, and he increased his FG% from 42% to 47% and shot 39.7% on 3s. He averaged just 27 minutes per game last year, so joining the starting unit should get him over the 30-minute threshold to net additional fantasy production.
Suggs started at SG in all 75 games for the Magic last season. With the added responsibility of now helping to run the offense alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, his value went up in fantasy with the opportunity to generate more assists. More minutes equals more potential for setting new career marks in points, assists and steals per game. With an ADP in the ninth round, Suggs could be one of the biggest steals in fantasy basketball drafts this season.
The Warriors’ decision to move on from future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson thrusts Podziemski into the starting unit. When news dropped that the Warriors want Podz to attempt 8-10 3s per game, it said a lot about how the Warriors plan to utilize him and how much faith they have in his scoring ability. He shot close to 39% from distance last year, so it tracks. He’ll compete (at times) with Jonathan Kuminga as the second option to Stephen Curry, but that’s a good thing for his fantasy value.
Podz was one of the best rebounding guards in the league as a rookie. His 11.7% rebounding mark was higher than Paolo Banchero and LeBron James. Josh Giddey, Luka Dončić and Russell Westbrook are the only guards with a higher total rebounding percentage than Podziemski.
Now that we’ve covered the scoring outlook and rebounding upside let’s get to his facilitation. He had 24 games with at least five assists last season, including a season-best 14 dimes off the bench across 34 minutes against the Grizzlies in February. He ran the second-unit offense at times last season, and seeing 30+ minutes a night should get him close to five assists a game.
Podz will wear many hats for the Dubs, including being one of their best on-ball defenders. After an offseason where Podziemski played on the USA Select Team, the breakout potential is real. His 11th-round ADP is mispriced, and fantasy managers should scoop him up as much as possible late in drafts.
